Our Views on the Markets and the Economy

Articles, investment updates and economic analysis

From east and west, the UK economy is exposed to global power shifts

This column by our chief economic strategist Gerard Lyons appeared in The Times on Wednesday 20th November, 2024.

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2024: the tax, spend and borrow Budget

The Chancellor began her Budget speech by putting it in a historic context, citing 1945, 1964 and 1997, three years in which Labour regained power in the post-war period. The only other year in which Labour also achieved that was 1974, and while the Chancellor did not cite this year it may be more appropriate than the others. The 1970s, like now, were a difficult backdrop for the economy, in an increasingly turbulent world.

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A tax, spend and borrow Budget but will it be pro-growth?

This coming Wednesday, Rachel Reeves will deliver her first Budget as Chancellor.
This will be a Tax, Borrow and Spend Budget. I expect two major components: one being a change in the definition of debt, from Public Sector Net Debt (PSND) to Public Sector Net Worth (PWNW) that will permit higher borrowing to fund public investment; and second, increased taxes to fund higher public spending, focused on the NHS.

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Labour’s history offers a warning on this tax, borrow, spend budget

This column by our chief economic strategist Gerard Lyons appeared in The Times on Tuesday 1st October, 2024.

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A focus on growth, rates and debt ahead of the October Budget

At the end of October the Chancellor will deliver her first Budget. Already the markets, as well as the general public, are expecting a tough Budget. This is a reflection of the messaging from the Government in recent weeks, the fiscal stance that has been inherited and the existing high level of UK debt.

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Black Monday crash didn’t last long. We’ll bounce back again now

This column by our chief economic strategist Gerard Lyons appeared in The Times on Tuesday 6th August, 2024.

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A transition to lower rates and to OsBrown economics

We are entering a transitional phase in economic policy across many countries. Especially in the UK, where low inflation points to an easier monetary policy and the change in government points to a shift in fiscal policy.

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A focus on fiscal policy

Last Thursday we hosted a webinar that focused on the policy outlook in the UK and on the implications for people’s finances. You can watch the recording here. Our head of advice, Tom Kimche, looked into the latter, while I focused on the overall outlook and implications. There were three parts to my talk: the latest economic data; the King’s Speech and what it might mean for economic policy; and fiscal policy.

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The government is right to focus on growth

Financial markets are still digesting the new policy measures of the Labour Government. Next week on the 18th of July – the day after the State Opening of Parliament, which includes the King’s Speech that outlines the government’s plan for this session of parliament – we will host a webinar focusing on the economic and financial implications of government policy.

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Post-election economic and financial outlook

What lies ahead after the election? On 20th June we hosted a webinar to address this issue. Here is a summary of my opening comments on the economic and financial outlook.

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